The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model had earlier this week projected nearly -3% GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025 (-2.8%). In its update Thursday that number improved to -2.4%.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model slid deeper into the red on Monday, estimating that Q1 GDP will sink 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the 1.5% decline it estimated on Friday. The nowcast factored in Monday's release of the February ISM,

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow on Friday lowered its forecast for the U.S. economy to a contraction at a 1.5% annual rate. This would be the first quarterly contraction in the economy since the first quarter of 2022.